How Will Trump's Administration Impact Cannabis Legalization?

With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, questions about the future of cannabis legalization in the United States are heating up. The Biden administration has already initiated the process of rescheduling marijuana, a significant step in the direction of reform. However, uncertainties loom over whether a Trump administration would continue or halt this progress. Today, we are discussing the possible Trump marijuana stance, the implications of his presidency on marijuana rescheduling, and what this means for the future of cannabis legalization.

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The State of Marijuana Rescheduling

Cannabis is currently classified as a Schedule I drug under the Controlled Substances Act — a category reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse and no accepted medical use. This classification places marijuana alongside drugs like heroin and LSD, creating monumental hurdles for medical research and state-legal cannabis markets to overcome.

In 2022, President Biden directed the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to review marijuana’s classification. More recently, preliminary hearings were held in December 2024 and January 2025. However, appeals made by participants who don’t believe they were given a fair chance to attend the hearings have since stalled the process and pushed hearings out to as late as March 2025.

Marijuana rescheduling would be a game-changer for the cannabis industry, alleviating tax burdens under IRS Code 280E and expanding research opportunities. But what happens now that Trump will assume office before the process is completed?

Trump’s Mixed Record on Cannabis

Donald Trump’s public statements and policies on cannabis reveal a complex and often contradictory stance. In the 2024 election cycle, Trump stated that he voted in favor of legalizing recreational marijuana in Florida. However, his federal policy actions during his presidency painted a less cannabis-friendly picture.

For instance, his administration rescinded the Cole Memo in 2018, a key Obama-era directive that discouraged federal interference in state-legal cannabis markets. This decision reintroduced legal uncertainties for businesses operating in the growing number of states that have legalized cannabis for medical or recreational use. Despite this, Trump refrained from significant crackdowns on state-legal cannabis programs, maintaining a hands-off approach to marijuana rescheduling.

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Trump’s Current Position on Federal Legalization

In his 2024 campaign, Trump has not explicitly outlined a comprehensive federal cannabis policy. While the Florida vote he supported clarifies his openness to recreational marijuana in the state, his broader views on federal legalization remain unclear. Some analysts speculate that Trump may prioritize issues like immigration and economic policy over cannabis reform.

On the other hand, some insiders argue that Trump’s business-minded approach could lead him to support cannabis reform if he sees it as an economic boon. According to the Cannabis Business Times, certain cannabis industry leaders believe Trump’s focus on economic growth might align with the burgeoning cannabis market, which is projected to generate over $40 billion annually by 2025.

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Will Trump Delay or Halt Marijuana Rescheduling?

One of the most pressing questions is whether Trump’s administration would delay or reverse the current rescheduling efforts. Rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III would represent a bipartisan victory, addressing public opinion that overwhelmingly favors legalization. A 2023 Pew Research Center poll found that 88% of Americans support either medical or recreational legalization.

However, Trump’s previous appointments to the DEA and Justice Department, such as former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, have taken a hardline stance against cannabis. Trump’s current selection of Pam Bondi as his pick for Attorney General doesn’t bode well for the adult use industry, though she is known to be more supportive of medical use. Despite this, she may well follow Trump’s lead if he wants to support federal legalization of cannabis.

The Industry’s Perspective

The cannabis industry’s reaction to a possible Trump presidency is a mix of hope and apprehension. Industry leaders have highlighted that Trump’s unpredictable policy style could swing in favor of reform if he perceives a political or economic advantage. According to the National Law Review, the rescheduling of marijuana would pave the way for significant industry growth, from increased investment opportunities to the elimination of punitive tax regulations. Conversely, a reversal of Biden’s efforts could stagnate this momentum, leaving the industry in a state of legal and financial limbo.

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Trump’s Base and Bipartisan Support for Cannabis Reform

While cannabis reform enjoys widespread public support, Trump’s conservative base presents a more divided picture. Many Republican lawmakers remain opposed to legalization, citing concerns about public health and safety. Nevertheless, a growing number of Republicans, especially younger voters, support marijuana reform. This bipartisan shift could influence Trump’s stance if he seeks to appeal to a broader electorate.

Additionally, Trump’s populist rhetoric and focus on “states’ rights” could align with a hands-off federal approach to cannabis. By allowing states to determine their cannabis policies without federal interference, Trump could appease both conservative and pro-cannabis voters.

Global Trends and U.S. Policy

Trump’s potential impact on cannabis legalization also intersects with global trends. Countries like Canada, Germany, and Thailand have moved toward full legalization, placing pressure on the U.S. to modernize its policies. A Trump administration’s resistance to reform could risk falling behind international competitors in the burgeoning global cannabis market.

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What’s Next for Cannabis Legalization?

The future of cannabis legalization in the U.S. hangs in the balance as Trump’s presidency looms. While Biden’s administration has laid the groundwork for marijuana rescheduling, the process is far from complete. Trump’s mixed record and unpredictable policy approach add a layer of uncertainty that could either propel or stall the cannabis movement.

As public support for legalization continues to grow, the question is not if cannabis reform will happen, but when — and under whose leadership. A Trump marijuana legalization plan would undoubtedly be a boon for the cannabis industry. Whether Trump sees cannabis as a political opportunity or a policy hurdle will shape the industry’s trajectory in the coming years but it remains to be seen how it will play out.